FIFTY-FIFTY CHANCE

Quote from the movie "Paddington": "A bear in the house increases the risks by four thousand percent."

My comment: "What kind of bear? Brown bear, Polar bear, Grizzly, Panda, Koala?"

This is the difference between my calculation and your. 

I take these factors into account, but you do not.

Ph.D. Natalia Petrovskaya